Have you ever wondered where the old people are? Nanjing is full of fashionable teens and twenties prowling the malls, smart young men in BMWs, and large groups of children going back and forth to school. But nationally, this is an ageing population. The majority of the 50 plusses are still living in the countryside. And this older generation are the ones growing your food. In Anhui province, most farmers are aged 50-80 and less than 20% are in their 20s and 30s. The next 10 years will see this bulge moving out of farming. Who will take their place?
Despite the restrictions of the ‘hukou’ registration system, the young have been migrating to the cities since the 80’s, lured by higher incomes and fleeing the drudgery of field labour. Existing farmers often rely on income from second jobs in local towns and remittances from migrant members of the wider family group. In a recent survey in Anhui, 9 out of 10 of farming families had a member working in a town. Amazingly, 80% of the income of farming families comes from non-agricultural activities there. Since 2004, government subsidies have helped to raise farm incomes but the monthly 80RMB they receive doesn’t compare with the 1000RMB even a low-income city job like waitressing provides. Small scale farming today is not financially viable without several income sources.
Perhaps youth will return to take over the farms? Young people in China have a great nostalgia for their rural roots: witness the travel chaos during the national holidays as they gravitate back to the home village. But ask them to return permanently and they are not so keen. Most farms are tiny and far less profitable than Western ones, and the government expects 400 million people – more than the total population of the USA- to move from rural to urban areas in the next decade. Min, a postgraduate student in Nanjing, does not see herself returning – she says “the best education and medical facilities, the jobs, and the fun, is in the cities”.
At the same time, there are newer pressures on the food scene. Diets are changing towards a preference for less energy efficient meat. Aspirational families and the young are increasingly taking up western eating habits. At a dinner with my neighbour Mr Gao, he apologised for the lack of meat at the table, explaining that this state of affairs is not because of its affordability but for health reasons; clearly he felt I might question his status as a good provider. And farmers are increasingly looking for crops that give a higher profit: walking in northern Yunnan recently, the rice paddy lakeside landscape is now strung up with line after line of grape vines.
What will actually happen is difficult to predict. Maybe rural farm incomes will increase to attract the younger, more educated workers. Recently the government introduced a new scheme to train young graduates in modern farming techniques and return them to the countryside. Another new scheme is to allow farmers to rent their land to ‘professional’ farmers who will take on the work and bring more efficient mechanisation to rice planting increasing grain yields. Or perhaps the government will increase the level of subsidy for key crops. However, these options make food production more costly, impacting on food prices and the cost of living for everyone, resulting in a rise in overall inflation which would undermine China’s ability to manufacture for the world at cheap prices.
Small scale farming is probably not viable in any modern society, so it is likely no one will take the place of the ageing farmers. Further increasing China’s food imports is probably the only realistic, short-term solution to the situation, with its unsustainable and depressing future of higher energy costs and more food miles. But above all, it’s the diverse food and vibrant local markets that gives China a stunning individuality. I have never eaten such a varied, culturally exciting, (though occasionally startling) and healthy diet. Young farmers: please stay in your villages. Where did I leave my magic wand?
(First published in the Nanjinger Magazine, February 2015
Despite the restrictions of the ‘hukou’ registration system, the young have been migrating to the cities since the 80’s, lured by higher incomes and fleeing the drudgery of field labour. Existing farmers often rely on income from second jobs in local towns and remittances from migrant members of the wider family group. In a recent survey in Anhui, 9 out of 10 of farming families had a member working in a town. Amazingly, 80% of the income of farming families comes from non-agricultural activities there. Since 2004, government subsidies have helped to raise farm incomes but the monthly 80RMB they receive doesn’t compare with the 1000RMB even a low-income city job like waitressing provides. Small scale farming today is not financially viable without several income sources.
Perhaps youth will return to take over the farms? Young people in China have a great nostalgia for their rural roots: witness the travel chaos during the national holidays as they gravitate back to the home village. But ask them to return permanently and they are not so keen. Most farms are tiny and far less profitable than Western ones, and the government expects 400 million people – more than the total population of the USA- to move from rural to urban areas in the next decade. Min, a postgraduate student in Nanjing, does not see herself returning – she says “the best education and medical facilities, the jobs, and the fun, is in the cities”.
At the same time, there are newer pressures on the food scene. Diets are changing towards a preference for less energy efficient meat. Aspirational families and the young are increasingly taking up western eating habits. At a dinner with my neighbour Mr Gao, he apologised for the lack of meat at the table, explaining that this state of affairs is not because of its affordability but for health reasons; clearly he felt I might question his status as a good provider. And farmers are increasingly looking for crops that give a higher profit: walking in northern Yunnan recently, the rice paddy lakeside landscape is now strung up with line after line of grape vines.
What will actually happen is difficult to predict. Maybe rural farm incomes will increase to attract the younger, more educated workers. Recently the government introduced a new scheme to train young graduates in modern farming techniques and return them to the countryside. Another new scheme is to allow farmers to rent their land to ‘professional’ farmers who will take on the work and bring more efficient mechanisation to rice planting increasing grain yields. Or perhaps the government will increase the level of subsidy for key crops. However, these options make food production more costly, impacting on food prices and the cost of living for everyone, resulting in a rise in overall inflation which would undermine China’s ability to manufacture for the world at cheap prices.
Small scale farming is probably not viable in any modern society, so it is likely no one will take the place of the ageing farmers. Further increasing China’s food imports is probably the only realistic, short-term solution to the situation, with its unsustainable and depressing future of higher energy costs and more food miles. But above all, it’s the diverse food and vibrant local markets that gives China a stunning individuality. I have never eaten such a varied, culturally exciting, (though occasionally startling) and healthy diet. Young farmers: please stay in your villages. Where did I leave my magic wand?
(First published in the Nanjinger Magazine, February 2015